How to Identify Bull Market Signals in Cryptocurrency

When the price of Bitcoin or Ethereum starts climbing and everyone around you is talking about getting rich, it’s easy to jump in. But most people who chase these moves end up buying at the top - right before the crash. The real money is made by spotting a bull market early, before the hype explodes. Not by guessing. Not by following influencers. But by recognizing clear, repeatable signals that have worked for decades - even in crypto.

What Actually Defines a Bull Market?

A bull market isn’t just a 10% or 15% price jump. It’s a sustained upward trend where prices rise 20% or more from recent lows, and they keep climbing over weeks or months. In crypto, this often means Bitcoin breaking above $60,000 after a long bear market and holding that level - not just bouncing once and falling back.

The key word is sustained. One good week doesn’t mean a bull market. Three months of higher highs and higher lows? That’s the real thing.

Signal #1: The Golden Cross - 50-Day Over 200-Day Moving Average

This is the most trusted signal in trading. When the 50-day moving average (the average price over the last 50 days) crosses above the 200-day moving average (the average over the last 200 days), it’s called a golden cross.

Why does this matter? The 200-day line acts like a wall. If price is below it, the trend is weak. If it breaks above and stays above, buyers are in control. In Bitcoin’s history, every major bull run since 2015 started with a golden cross. Not all golden crosses lead to big gains - but every big bull market had one.

Don’t act on the cross alone. Wait for confirmation. Look at volume. If the crossover happens on high trading volume, it’s real. If it’s on low volume, it’s likely a fakeout.

Signal #2: 18 Consecutive Closes Above the 200-Day MA

This is the secret weapon most retail traders miss. After a bear market, if Bitcoin (or any major crypto) closes above its 200-day moving average for 18 days in a row, it’s a powerful signal that the trend has shifted.

Backtests show this signal has triggered only a few times since 2010 - and each time, Bitcoin gained an average of 21.8% over the next year. That’s better than most buy-and-hold strategies. The reason it works? It filters out noise. A single day above the 200-day MA means nothing. But 18 days? That’s buyers stepping in day after day, refusing to let price fall back.

In January 2023, Bitcoin closed above its 200-day MA for 18 straight days. The next 12 months saw a 150% gain. This isn’t luck. It’s math.

Signal #3: Volume Surge on Breakouts

Price can fake you out. Volume doesn’t lie.

If Bitcoin jumps from $40,000 to $45,000 in a day but trading volume is lower than the previous week, it’s probably a pump-and-dump. If that same $5,000 move happens with volume 2x or 3x the 30-day average? That’s institutional money entering the market.

Look for volume spikes when price breaks through key resistance levels - like $50,000 for Bitcoin or $3,000 for Ethereum. If the breakout happens on weak volume, the rally will die quickly. If volume surges and stays elevated? The bull market is likely real.

A coffee cup chart pattern forming on a screen, with traders accumulating coins and volume exploding above the handle.

Signal #4: Cup and Handle Pattern

This is a classic chart pattern that shows consolidation before a big move. It looks like a coffee cup with a handle.

The cup forms when price drops slowly over weeks or months - usually 30% from the peak - then gradually climbs back up. The handle is a smaller pullback after the cup is complete, lasting at least five days. Then, price breaks out of the handle with a spike in volume.

Bitcoin formed a perfect cup and handle in late 2020. The cup took 10 weeks to form. The handle lasted 17 days. Then, in November 2020, volume exploded as price broke above $20,000. Within 12 months, Bitcoin hit $60,000.

This pattern works because it shows patience. Buyers are accumulating during the cup. Sellers are exhausted. The handle is the last shakeout. When volume comes back, it’s the professionals stepping in.

Signal #5: Fundamental Shifts - More Than Just Price

Price alone isn’t enough. Bull markets in crypto are fueled by real-world changes:

ETF approvals: The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. in January 2024 triggered a wave of institutional buying that lasted months.
Halving events: Bitcoin’s halving cuts new supply in half. Historically, bull markets start 4-6 months after halving.
Regulatory clarity: When governments stop cracking down and start regulating, confidence grows. The EU’s MiCA regulation in 2024 gave global investors more certainty.
Adoption: More businesses accepting crypto, banks offering custody, or pension funds allocating small portions to BTC - these are signs the market is maturing.

If price is rising and these fundamentals are aligning? That’s a bull market with real legs.

Signal #6: Sentiment Isn’t Everything - But It’s a Warning Sign

When your Uber driver starts giving you crypto tips, or TikTok is full of “100x moonshots,” that’s not a signal to buy. That’s a signal to be careful.

Bull markets end when everyone is bullish. The best time to enter is when fear is still high - when people are saying, “This will never recover.”

Use tools like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. If it’s below 30 (fear), it’s a good time to look for entry points. If it’s above 80 (greed), you’re likely near a top.

A crypto cityscape at twilight with a fear index at 28, an 18-day close banner, and ETF rockets launching into the sky.

What’s a Bull Trap? (And How to Avoid It)

A bull trap is when price looks like it’s breaking out - but then crashes hard. It’s designed to catch the impatient.

Here’s how to spot one:

Price spikes on low volume.
RSI goes above 80 quickly - then drops.
Price breaks a resistance level but fails to hold it for more than 2-3 days.
No change in fundamentals - no ETFs, no halving, no adoption news.

If you see these signs, don’t chase. Wait. The real bull market won’t run away. It’ll come back.

How to Put It All Together

Don’t rely on one signal. Combine them.

Here’s a simple checklist:

Is the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA?
Has price closed above the 200-day MA for 18+ days?
Is volume rising on breakouts?
Is there a clean cup and handle pattern forming?
Are there real-world catalysts? (ETFs, halving, regulation)
Is sentiment still cautious, not manic?

If 4 or more of these are true? You’re likely in a bull market. If only 1 or 2? Wait. The market will tell you when it’s ready.

Tools You Need

You don’t need fancy software. But you do need reliable data:

TradingView: Free charts with moving averages, volume, and RSI.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: Free index to track sentiment.
CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko: For ETF news, halving countdowns, and adoption stats.
Bitcoin Halving Tracker: Know exactly when the next one is.

Set alerts. For example: “Notify me when Bitcoin closes above 200-day MA for day 15.” That way, you’re not staring at charts 24/7.

Final Rule: Patience Wins

The biggest mistake traders make? Trying to catch the very first move. You don’t need to buy on day one. You don’t need to be first. You just need to be early.

A bull market lasts months - sometimes years. Missing the first 10% doesn’t mean you missed everything. If you wait for the golden cross, the 18-day close, and the volume surge, you’ll enter with a much higher chance of success.

Crypto bull markets are rare. They don’t come every year. But when they do, they change lives. Don’t guess. Don’t gamble. Watch for the signals. Wait for the confirmation. Then act.

How long does a crypto bull market usually last?

Historically, major crypto bull markets last between 12 and 36 months. Bitcoin’s last bull run from late 2020 to November 2021 lasted 23 months. The 2017 run lasted about 14 months. The duration depends on macro factors like interest rates, regulation, and adoption - not just price.

Can a bull market happen without Bitcoin rising?

Rarely. Bitcoin is the market leader and sets the tone for the entire crypto space. If Bitcoin is in a bear market, most altcoins will fall too. A true crypto bull market almost always starts with Bitcoin breaking key levels. Altcoins usually follow 3-6 months later.

Is RSI above 70 always a sign to sell?

No. In strong bull markets, RSI can stay above 70 - even above 80 - for weeks. The key is context. If RSI is rising along with price and volume, it’s part of the trend. If RSI spikes fast and then drops sharply while price stalls, that’s a warning. Don’t sell just because RSI is high. Wait for divergence or volume collapse.

Do moving averages work in crypto the same as in stocks?

Yes. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages work the same way in crypto as they do in stocks or forex. Crypto is more volatile, so signals may trigger faster - but the logic is identical. The golden cross and 18-day close rule have proven effective across multiple crypto cycles since 2013.

Should I wait for a pullback after a breakout?

It’s smarter. After a strong breakout, price often pulls back to test the new support level - often near the 200-day MA or the top of the cup. This is called a retest. Waiting for a retest with solid volume gives you a better entry point with less risk. You don’t need to buy on the breakout day.

12 Comments

Abdulahi Oluwasegun Fagbayi
January 27, 2026 AT 09:51

The 18-day close above the 200-day MA is the real deal. I've tracked this since 2016 and it never lied. Volume confirmation is non-negotiable. Most retail traders skip this and get burned. Math doesn't care about your feelings.
Darrell Cole
January 27, 2026 AT 18:17

Moving averages are lagging indicators and crypto moves too fast for them. You're using 1970s stock market logic on a 24/7 speculative casino. The only signal that matters is FOMO levels on Twitter
Jennifer Duke
January 28, 2026 AT 20:18

Honestly I'm shocked anyone still believes in moving averages in crypto. I mean really. The 200-day MA? That's like using a slide rule to navigate a SpaceX rocket. I've been in every cycle since 2013 and the only thing that matters is institutional inflow and ETF flows. The rest is just noise. 🤷‍♀️
Dave Ellender
January 29, 2026 AT 19:17

I've seen this play out too many times. The golden cross is a great filter but it's not a buy signal by itself. I wait for the volume surge and the 18-day close together. That combo has saved me from three bull traps already.
Adam Fularz
January 30, 2026 AT 17:13

cup and handle? more like cup and cupcake. why are we still talking about chart patterns like its 2017? the only thing that matters is if the fed is printing or not. everything else is just casino math
Mark Estareja
January 31, 2026 AT 00:23

The institutional thesis is undeniable. Spot ETF approvals created a structural bid that didn't exist pre-2024. This isn't retail-driven momentum anymore. It's macro-driven capital allocation. The 200-day MA is just a proxy for liquidity conditions. Volume spikes are the leading indicator of ETF inflows.
steven sun
February 1, 2026 AT 05:55

bro just buy the dip when fear is at 15 and hold for 2 years. no need for all this technical crap. i made 8x in 2021 just by ignoring everyone. now i just chill and watch my bag grow 🚀
Athena Mantle
February 1, 2026 AT 07:51

I'm so done with people overcomplicating this 💔 the market is just a reflection of human emotion. when your cousin texts you 'BTC to 100k' you know it's time to sell. I use the fear & greed index religiously and it's literally always right 😘❤️
carol johnson
February 2, 2026 AT 18:47

I can't believe people still fall for this 'golden cross' nonsense. I lost 80% of my portfolio last cycle because I trusted these 'signals'. Now I just follow the whales on Arkham. If they're buying, I buy. If they're selling? I sell. No charts needed. 🙃
Paru Somashekar
February 3, 2026 AT 07:58

The 18-day close above 200-day MA is statistically robust. Backtested across four cycles with 89% accuracy in predicting 100%+ returns. However, one must also correlate with on-chain metrics such as NVT ratio and exchange net flows. Technical analysis alone is insufficient without fundamental alignment.
Steve Fennell
February 3, 2026 AT 12:52

I appreciate the structure here. It's rare to see someone lay this out without hype. The key takeaway for me is patience. You don't need to catch the bottom. You just need to catch the momentum. I've been waiting for the 18-day close since January. It finally happened. Took me 11 months to stop chasing. Worth it.
Heather Crane
February 3, 2026 AT 14:51

This is exactly what I've been trying to tell my friends for months! So many people are scared to buy because they think they missed it, but the market doesn't care about your FOMO. It waits for the signals. And when they line up? It's beautiful. I'm so glad someone finally wrote this clearly 🙌❤️